Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) - Dilution Analysis

Visualizing historical and potential share dilution over time

Dilution Analysis

High Risk
Significant dilution risk
Last updated: May 08, 2026

Risk Assessment Details

Potential Dilution: 48.25% of current shares
Recent Dilution: 30.44% (2 years)
Historical Dilution Factor: significant recent dilution
Outstanding Shares
55M
Potential Supply
27M
Additional shares possible
Splits
None
Past 2 years

Summary

BAER currently has 55.3M outstanding shares. with moderate dilution risk from 26.7M authorized shares representing 48.3% potential dilution. The company has significantly diluted shareholders by 30.44% over the past 2 years, indicating aggressive capital raising.

Share Structure Timeline

Outstanding Shares
Total Supply

Historical Data Points

Date Event Outstanding Supply
May 08, 2026

10-Q filing | 55.3M shares outstanding

55M 27M
Nov 07, 2025

10-Q filing | 54.6M shares outstanding

55M 27M
Aug 08, 2025

10-Q filing | 53.9M shares outstanding

54M 27M
May 09, 2025

10-Q filing | 53.8M shares outstanding

54M 27M
Mar 14, 2025

10-K filing | 50.5M shares outstanding

51M 27M
Dec 09, 2024

S-3 filing: This is an S-3 filing for the resale of up to 9,621,454 shares of common stock by selling stockholders.

53M 27M
Nov 13, 2024

10-Q filing | 52.9M shares outstanding

53M 17M
Aug 13, 2024

10-Q filing | 48.3M shares outstanding

48M 17M
Jul 18, 2024

POS AM filing: This POS AM filing relates to the offering of common stock and warrants by selling holders and the company, including shares issuable upon the exercise of public and private placement warrants.

53M 17M
Jul 01, 2024

8-K filing: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. completed a merger with Flight Test & Mechanical Solutions, Inc. on June 28, 2024, issuing 4,386,993 shares of common stock to the former stockholders of FMS as part of the closing issuance, with a potential for up to 9,621,454 shares in total, including earnout considerations.

48M 17M
May 14, 2024

10-Q filing | 47.6M shares outstanding

48M 17M
Apr 16, 2024

8-K filing: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. entered into securities purchase agreements with certain accredited investors to sell and issue 2,183,366 shares of common stock in a registered direct offering, with gross proceeds expected to be approximately $9.8 million. ($9.85M proceeds)

45M 17M
Mar 20, 2024

10-K filing | 45.3M shares outstanding

45M 17M
Jan 26, 2024

S-3 filing: This is an S-3 filing for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc., allowing them to offer and sell up to $200,000,000 in the aggregate of common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants, or units from time to time in one or more offerings.

49M 17M
Jan 26, 2024

S-3 filing: This prospectus relates to the proposed resale or other disposition of up to an aggregate of 8,825,729 shares of common stock by the selling stockholders.

46M 17M
Nov 13, 2023

10-Q filing | 45.9M shares outstanding

46M 0
Oct 24, 2023

POS AM filing: This is a post-effective amendment to deregister unsold securities from a previous registration statement.

45M 0
Oct 23, 2023

S-1/A filing: The filing is for an offering of 15,000,000 shares of common stock.

45M 15M
Oct 17, 2023

S-1 filing: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. is offering shares of its common stock with a total proposed amount of $70,000,000. The last reported sale price for the Common Stock on October 16, 2023, was $6.45 per share.

45M 11M
Sep 14, 2023

8-K filing: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. acquired Ignis Technologies, Inc. for $12.0 million, payable in unregistered shares of Bridger's common stock, with 426,531 restricted shares issued at Closing and additional shares to be issued contingent upon achieving operational milestones in 2024, 2025 and 2026. ($3.0M proceeds)

45M 0
Aug 10, 2023

10-Q filing | 45.4M shares outstanding

45M 0
May 12, 2023

10-Q filing | 43.5M shares outstanding

43M 0
Apr 11, 2023

POS AM filing: This prospectus relates to the offer and sale from time to time by the selling securityholders of (a) up to 120,277,192 shares of our common stock and (b) up to 9,400,000 Private Placement Warrants originally acquired by JCIC Sponsor and also relates to the issuance by us of up to an aggregate of 26,650,000 shares of Common Stock that may be issued upon exercise of the Warrants

44M 0
Mar 27, 2023

POS AM filing: This is a POS AM filing for the offer and sale of up to 26,650,000 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of warrants, up to 120,277,192 shares of common stock by selling securityholders, and up to 9,400,000 private placement warrants.

44M 0
Feb 08, 2023

S-1/A filing: This S-1/A filing registers for resale (a) up to 120,277,192 shares of common stock held by selling securityholders and (b) up to 9,400,000 private placement warrants, as well as the issuance of up to 26,650,000 shares of common stock upon exercise of warrants.

44M 160M
Jan 30, 2023

S-1 filing: This S-1 filing includes the offer and sale of common stock and warrants by selling securityholders, as well as the issuance of common stock upon exercise of warrants.

44M 160M
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